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Just two months ago that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the source of Villa's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Serious Title Contenders?

This is a particularly tough query to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, while the victories have piled up.

As per the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents had more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• The centre-forward could start scoring again.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.

This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.