Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
